Intel Thunderbolt penetration stalls on cost
We have seen this movie before. Although Intel Thunderbolt I/O technology is demonstrably superior (image below) to USB 3, only a small number of vendors are building it into portable and desktop Windows PCs. Very much like Apple’s FireWire before, Thunderbolt looks set to fizzle due to cost issues.
The bottom line is that a Thunderbolt controller chip costs around $20, which up to 40 times more expensive than a USB 3 controller.
Currently, with the exception of the Mac Pro, every Mac Apple makes includes Thunderbolt. However, the news out of Asia, where the vast majority of notebook and desktop motherboards are manufactured, is that only about 10 percent of all Windows PCs ship with Intel Thunderbolt built in.
It’s a chicken and egg issue. Whereas video pros demand Thunderbolt’s high and stable throughput, consumer devices and application that use the technology are essentially nonexistent.
Why? Well, a big part of the problem has to be cost, which is an issue that can only be resolved by high-volume manufacturing.
Yes, technically speaking Thunderbolt, like FireWire before it, is greatly superior. However, there’s very little chance it will succeed in the mass market…
What’s your take?
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But Thunderbolt is much more than just a data connection, so to justify the price I’d have to ask how much the controller chips are for not just USB 3 but also HDMI/DVI or what ever display technology people are bundling in as well. Also, the cost of the chip is only one piece. There is often a per port cost as well. Do you know what that is on thunderbolt? Most systems come with a single port and expect devices to allow chaining but if there is a large cost to adding a port, that would further hamper this technology.
Just wondering, because I don’t want to see another great technology go away for non technical reasons.
Other than storage, there really isn’t any compelling reason for a typical consumer to require Thunderbolt, so it makes sense that PC manufacturers are taking a wait and see on the mass market need.
Once there are usable Thunderbolt docks available, then it will make sense for laptops to increasingly depend on them for port expansion for the mobile user. Note well: even USB3 port expanders are rare.
There are enough laptops and desktop solutions available to satisfy needs for those willing to pay a premium.
Once the technology matures, we’re sure to see more adoption as the costs come down.
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