MacBook Air Holds 39% Ultrabook Share, Say Sources

Really? Analysts have been tripping over each other recently to declare the ultrabook a failure. And, by ultrabook, the pundits mean any super slim notebook not made by Apple, because the MacBook Air is selling better than fine. That said, perhaps we should consider the source of this mere four-in-10 guestimate.

In a word, ultrabook sales stink and IHS iSuppli estimates that a mere 10.3 million will have sold by year’s end. Nevertheless, Taiwan’s namebrand and OEM notebook makers insist on spinning the story their way.

DigiTimes, quoting unnamed supply chain sources, claim that the MacBook Air will account for only 39 percent of the ultrabook-style notebooks sold this year and the company’s share will fall to 28 percent next year. But, honestly, those numbers just don’t wash.

Apple sold 16.735 million Macs in fiscal 2011. Conservatively assuming the company only increases that by 5 percent this year, 17.19375 Macs will get sold in fiscal 2012.

Tim Cook has said 80 percent of Mac sales are portables and 80 percent those are said by DigiTimes to be MacBook Airs, which yields about 11 million MBAs, which is more than the IHS iSuppli’s entire 2012 ultrabook estimate. Or, strain a bit in deference to credulity by twisting the numbers a bit — 75 percent + 60 percent — and we still get 8.253 million MacBook Airs, which is way more than four-in-10 ultrabooks.

Taiwan’s notebook makers have an obvious axe to grind — that their latest and greatest Apple knockoff has failed — and they’re spinning to save some face.

Whatever the case, no matter how you spin the numbers, when anyone talks about ultrabook sales, what we are really talking about is the MacBook Air…

What’s your take?